March Madness – Part One

I'm only two years removed from my college playing days, so this topic is very near and dear to my heart. Let’s get started!

This will probably be the most difficult year to fill out a bracket. There's so much parity in college basketball that trying to assess who the favorites, dark horses and possible upset picks are will almost be an act of futility. However, there are certain constants in the game of college basketball and the NCAA tournament that I'll use to help you figure out the best teams to pick.

First things first: Why is there so much parity in college basketball? This isthe simple answer to this question: AAU youth basketball has increased the overall talent pool and most of the players that would be dominant upperclassmen are already in the NBA (Kevin Durant, Greg Oden, Kevin Love, O.J. Mayo, etc). Sure, teams like Duke, Kentucky and Kansas will always (usually) be top-level programs, but if you look at the top 15 right now you'll see Kansas State, New Mexico, Butler, Vanderbilt and BYU are all there. Those programs are NOT college basketball powers by any stretch of the imagination (at least typically), yet they have as good a chance of making the Final Four as any other team. You see what I mean by parity in college basketball now?

So what are the constants that we need to pay attention to when eventually making our bracket picks? (In order of importance)

1. Experience
2. Style of play (Defense and Offense)
3. Guard Play

In Parts Two and Three of the blog, I'll give my picks based on these criteria, but for now let me explain why these constants are important. (You can do some research in the meantime as well.)

Experience: This is the most obvious constant (or at least it should be). However, because most of the premiere players in college basketball these days are often youngsters (John Wall!) it's the one that might get ignored. When in doubt ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS pick the team that has the most overall experience, especially at the guard spot (we’ll get there in a second). The NCAA tourney is all about a team focusing on ONE game at a time and not getting caught up in the atmosphere -- and this is much easier to do for a 22 year old than an 18 year old. That’s a simple fact of life.

Style of play: Coaches don't have much time to scout the teams they're going to play in the tourney outside of the first weekend. So, if a team has a unique defense (Syracuse) or offense (Princeton) this is a GREAT advantage. It used to be the reason Princeton was always such a great upset pick (before the Princeton offense spread all over the college basketball world).

Guard Play: I want you to look over the last decade or even two decades and find a Championship team that didn't have experienced guards. (Syracuse in 2003 was an anomaly because they had Carmelo and McNamara had the game of his LIFE!). Height might be considered the major criteria come NBA draft night, but when it comes to winning games in the NCAA tourney, there is nothing, NOTHING more important than having experienced, good guards.

So as you watch the last week of the regular season and conference championship week keep these things in mind and take down notes!

Stay tuned for Part Two. (Feel free to leave any questions you might have in the comment section.)

Enjoy the Madness!

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